Have The Separating Security Lines made #Syria ready to be divided?

Eldorar Alshamia Editor | 6 May, 2017
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ElDorar AlShamia:

Russia presented a new idea at the table of Astana 4, which represented a magnet for the Syrian revolution factions had not attended Astana-3, and found something worth attending before retreating to protest the continued aerial bombardment conducted by Russia and the Syrian regime.

The delegation of the Syrian Revolutionary Forces returned to Astana after confirming the "guarantees" to stop the bombing, and then 4 members left the meeting room; in protest against Iran's signing of the "de-escalation znes" memorandum as a guarantor.

The military delegation’s member to Astana talks , Osama Abu Zeid, was not optimistic on the Russia's commitment and recalled previous failed experiences with them in “Wadi Barada” area and the Eastern Ghouta, warning the Russians that the revolutionary factions would return to the armed-fighting if they (Russia) broke their promises.

Fears of such zones turning into cantons

Separating forces are supposed to be deployed from neutral states (third partiy) where the United Nations may participate, setting limits to ground forces that would not be bypassed by both sides of the conflict.

If the Syrian regime is not changed via a political solution and a real transition to power that breaks down its security and sectarian structure and the withdrawal of the Iranian militias from Syria, these forces are supposed to prevent the army of the regime and the militias from continuing the attacks. This would keep the regime in the coastal line area and the two commercial and industrial capitals of Syria: Aleppo and Damascus, the area which was recently known as "Useful Syria."

The delegation of the Revolutionary Forces expressed genuine fears that there was international intention and agreement to divide Syria earlier, but it revealed that it had received assurances from the Turkish side that the working groups would take into account the issue of Iranian militias and would prevent these militias to access the areas in where  the separating  forces will be deployed.

Are the international Plans of Syria running?

A delegation member revealed that the US envoy to Astana stressed that no serious project in Washington is different from the Russian project, and there is no intention to establish safe areas, and the Russian proposal is not counter to the American’s; the consensual agreement between the Russian and American sides, described by one of the Russian newspapers as a “Big Deal” .

An Israeli searching centre has interpreted the Israeli prime minister ‘s shuttle  since the beginning of 2017 and his two successive visits to Moscow as the Israel's keenness to enforce its interests with an international consensus on Syria after the takeover of Aleppo and Moscow's announcement to cooperate with Ankara to find a political solution on Syria. .

The Washington Institute for Strategic Studies published early on the Syrian revolution reports of fertile ground for division in Syria, relying on religious, sectarian and ethnic differences in the components of the Syrian fabric.

It was the banner of Russian call for federalism and decentralized rule in the draft of the new constitution proposed to the delegation of the revolutionary forces, and on representatives of the Democratic Unionist Party (PYD), which was then considered a clear Russian intent for partition plans.

On the northern region of Syria, the Turkish neighbor has alerted to the existence of plans described by Erdogan as "dirty" for the division of Syria.

Over the course of more than a year, the Russian military intervention strengthened the positions of the Assad forces and secured them with strong and advanced defensive lines on the Syrian coast, in Aleppo and in the vicinity of the capital, Damascus, after they were actually threatened. Most attacks of the revolutionary factions became difficult and costly, Foreign militias and heavy Russian air cover are the real reasons for that, while the PYD separatist project continues to advance on territory controlled by the IS organization with Russian-American support.

Has the USA any role in the agreement?

The agreement came a few weeks after strong statements by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson against Russia and the Syrian regime. He visited Moscow last month and discussed with his counterpart for a way to reach a solution in Syria. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that "there are no- bypassed differences with Washington ".

Observers of the Syrian issue suggested that the announcement of Russia on these areas is a decline in front of the US progress towards the establishment of safe zones, of which the Kremlin had expressed its objection; where Russia preceded the move by declaring the “de-escalation zones”, but it is the Russian-Turkish agrrement, so what the extent that Washington would be  present in the file?

Russia’s Vladimir Putin said just days before the Astana meeting: "It is not possible to bypass a country such as the United States in any agreements that may be held in the region, and previously the telephone call with his US counterpart Donald Trump, in which he discussed the Syrian issue.

"The areas of easing the escalation in Syria will be closed to the US-led international coalition, which necessarily means there would be an agreement with the American side that leads the coalition, Alexander Lazerntiv, the Russian president's special envoy to Syria and head of the Russian delegation to Astana said.

All in all, the Assad regime warned in 2011 of plans to divide Syria, but its continuation in its repressive and bloody policy has pushed things in Syria to the current situation. Previous experience in the complex Syrian file shows that it has become impervious to any decisive analysis or prediction.

 

 

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