Why #Russia Rushes up to Fabricate a Settlement in #Syria ?

Eldorar Alshamia Editor | 16 February, 2017

ElDorar AlShamia :

Once the deportation of eastern Aleppo’s population is about to be done and the Russian air force takes a breath, Vladimir Putin announced that the next step is to declare a cease-fire across the country, to change the direction of the expectations about worries of the crowds to crawl into neighboring city of Idlib.

It sounds that Russians seriously are in search with Turkey to reach an agreement on Syria, and Putin, who came out as a "victor" in Aleppo began stressing repeatedly with his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, that no military solution in Syria, after talking about the crush of terrorists and restore all the land.

Putin: the next phase in Syria will be a cease-fire aross Syria totally

Russian declarations accelerated about the beginning of diplomatic efforts seriously to end the 5-year lasted war in Syria (since 2011), and it was remarkable Russia to acknowledge  the revolutionary factions = and negotiate with them directly, and specifically the two factions of the Jaish al-Islamic and Ahrar al-Sham Movement (that did not sign the ceasefire agreement), after strenuous efforts of Moscow in the Security Council to classify the two very factions as terrorist- classified organizations vowing to eradicate them in Syria.

 Putin: "We are holding negotiations with representatives, especially of the armed opposition, , via the Turkish broker."

"We have agreed in a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to propose that the various parties of the conflict a new place of peace talks, it may be the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana."

One of the most important thing that has been achieved in Astana, according to the Russian President, which is adopted by the whole conflict parties concerning that a military solution in Syria is impossible, what practically means that the revolutionary factions have begun to realize that the global temper is currently not allowed to drop Assad's regime, as the Russians are aware that it does not allow for them the full decisive end.

Russian’s Penetrate

The revolutionary factions rejected categorically any of the regions or factions in Syria to be excepted, and insisted on its position, and it seemed they were able to impose on Moscow and the al-Assad regime an agreement does not exclude Wadi Barada area and Eastern Ghouta as they want, and a comprehensive agreement was signed, but different implementations began on the ground, and the repeated scenario of displacement run again in Wadi Barada, despite the factions threated to withdraw of the cease-fire agreement as the spokesman of the delegation for the military factions in Ankara talked about a trick they had, as a version of the agreement to be handed over by Russians, is different from the one signed by the al-Assad regime, while their ally (Turkey) did not listen to their claims to take a decisive stand or an expected responsiveness, but Turks seemed to be satisfied to a great performance from Russians and objecting to some extent the Iranian role, which indicates that Russia had made a breakthrough in the Turkish position that seemed more lenient with the Russian regime.

Russian and UN’s attempts began to intervene in the composition of the opposition delegation to Geneva after the Astana meeting, and worked to involve the two platforms of Moscow and Cairo in the delegation as "opposition", despite having taken a loyal attitude to the Russian vision, and exceeded their efforts to propose a new constitution for Syria quickly approved by the two platforms, where the" opponents "loyal to Moscow took a part of the negotiating team to Geneva.

Previous data indicates that Russia has actually succeeded in bringing penetrate the Turkish position, as well as to penetrate the ranks of the Syrian negotiating delegation that confronting the regime by entering the figures loyal to Moscow in addition to the Russian intervention made the latest changes on the ground.

Changes in Washington

The rapid events in Syria were accompanied with more accelerated changes in Washington, as the soft-motioned president’s administration prepared to leave the White House, the new president, Donald Trump began his first day announcing his intention to establish safe zones in Syria, which was vetoed by the Russian Kremlin openly, wishing Trump to review his thoughts about it.

The former US President Barack Obama before leaving office warned Russians of falling into the "new Afghanistan" trap, calling on Moscow to work with the United States on a political solution in Syria; such warning had been agreed  by the UN Special Envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, who said after an end to hostilities in Aleppo he is not from Moscow's interest to continue the war would be lengthened to tens of years, though control of the cities it does not mean the end of the war, but it  may be turned to a guerrilla war that would cost Moscow a lot.

Obama: "Russia and Iran’s attempt to support the al-Assad to calm the population will lead to disastrous swamp it will not succeed."

US Secretary of State of Obama administration stressed that they are not excluded from the Syrian file despite the lack of presence in the basic party to the Astana, where Russia appeared to be the strongest party in the file, its decision to the negotiations held in nearby Kazakhstan, in preparation for a new round in Geneva.

Russia seemed to anticipate the changing order of the cards in Syria and the Middle East with the administration change in Washington, and despite the Russian media promotion for military cooperation is expected with the new administration on Syria, but Trump’s procedures and his  administration do not go alongside with his remarks in his election campaign, and the new US administration continued in anti-Russia actions confirmed the initial position of Moscow, where he refused to lift the sanctions on Moscow, as Trump's administration confirmed its intention to proceed with the project of the safe zone in line with Saudi Arabia and Turkey without paying attention to the Russian objection.

 New Turkish Rotation

Parallel to "urgently" Russian steps, Ankara has taken rapid steps for rapprochement with Russia, against the US and Western traditional allies, and those steps have been serious signing long-term investment projects with Russians of economics, Turkey seemed to think about going East amid a state of anger toward US United, specifically towards Obama’s administration, and its refusal to establish safe areas in Syria, and the large-scale supporting  to YPG units even though it poses the risk of the Turkish national Security Council, and despite the Ankara’s upset of that policy, but the US administration change is already threatening to change the course of events in northern Syria, where Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu “announced the understanding with US President Trump's administration about the safe zone in Syria, and was preceded by the declaration of the Turkish Prime Minister Ben Ali Yıldırım about Washington's intention to resolve the Kurdish units spam protection for Ankara file.

Signals emerged indicate the presence of a type of the Turkish Russian contrast, and threats of serious progress for understanding between Ankara and Moscow, which has not lived up to the strategic alliance level yet, and perhaps Russia is building for the Conference for the Kurds of the Middle East and the presence of delegates from the accused Democratic Peoples Party from Ankara of supporting terrorism as well as the Union Party Kurdish Democratic of the biggest threats to the relationship between the two countries.

For the first time since the Turkish rapprochement - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov defended Iranian presence and the presence of Hezbollah in Syria, despite demands from Ankara explicitly Banzhabhma, which was interpreted at the time as a sign of the Iranian-Russian variation.

And accompanied by an interview with Lavrov with another statement, in which he expressed his expectations on the low ceiling to reach a final settlement in Geneva, saying that it is still far away.

Potential changes in Moscow

Last year, on the official website of the Russian Kremlin a remarkable statement posted to the Russian doctor, about the state of Vladimir Putin’s health, to be deleted after a few hours, but it caused a stir at the time, where it was predicted that Putin is forced to hand over power by the year 2017, due to the deterioration of his health, which It may not allow him to continue his presidential duties.

It is known that Putin is the godfather and the architect of the military intervention in Syria, the news has been carrying signs of his desire to complete his steps, according to his own plan, before leaving his post during the current year and the coming of the new president with a different vision, but these reports remain within the framework of the leaks and expectations.

To be concluded: The latest Russian intervention in Syria made real field and political changes, it is clear that the balance of power has changed in favor of the Syrian regime and its allies, especially Russia, it is also clear that Moscow is seeking to harvest the fruits planted by the intervention, taking advantage of its rapprochement with Turkey and Trump's administration  is sufficiently toward the Middle East, and in this context, Moscow is trying to pre-empt any regional and international or internal changes to hold private Syrian settlement in Geneva 4 conference and refuse a request for postponement, but that many factors stuck to Ankara of a new idea of ​​the safe zone and the presence of ears have in Washington and the American escalation towards Iran the Russians refused to was so that it would seem to shuffle the cards and spoil the Russians on the idea of ​​achieving a settlement of the conditions that you want.