Raqqa Battle:Media Exaggeration versus Reality

Eldorar Alshamia Editor | 28 May, 2016
   Views

ElDorar AlShamia:
Without mentioned warning or any preparation, the International Coalition in cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Militias (SDF) launched “Raqqa Battle” just a few days after the visit of the US forces commander in the Middle East, Gen. Joseph Votal to the northeast of Syria, and his meeting with the leaders of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party “PYD” (Syrian PKK Wing), which forms the backbone of (SDF) in Syria.
The battle began in the northern countryside of the of Raqqa province with dozens of air strikes of the coalition military aircraft, while (SDF) has not been able to make significant progress, but to control some of the farms, amid reports of many casualties among the attackers after that the Field momentum was halted, but the media momentum resumes, which involved throwing leaflets by the  coalition aircraft dropped on (IS) sites in of Raqqa province vows to the fall of the city soon.

 

Military observers and politicians many believe that the battle will not be serious enough, and that there are many obstacles Come Closer.
 


According to the political researcher “Maher Alloush" that killing of Taliban leader  "Mullah Akhtar Mansour"the Declaration of the battle of Fallujah, then the declaration of the Battle of Raqqa aim at media in a large scale for the US-administration, as every time it used to  do , each US-administration resorts before its era comes to an end , to fix some achievements and all of the above incidents come in this context.


"Alloush" stressed in an exclusive interview to ElDorar AlShamia Nrws Network  that the United States are really embarrassed in front of the International Community, especially when the al-Assad regime supported by the Russian air force managed to take over the ancient city of Palmyra, and get rid of (IS) militants pulling them out the city , where Russia specialized basically in the eastern countryside of Homs province, and led a large part of what it had to do there, while the US-administration has failed to achieve any significant progress, making the image –as  a forefront State fighting against terrorism - shake in front of the International Community, so it chose to launch a battle which has its own “media goals” , emphasis was placed on the visit of the US- forces commander in the Middle East to northeast Syria, in reference to that the United States plays a pivotal role in the battle of the (IS’s) “capital”," it was preceded by a similar incident in the Iraqi city of Mosul, where the fight was announced several months ago without achieving a little progress.

Fill the void difficulties

According to the political researcher "Maher Alloush" The fundamental problem lies in filling the vacuum after the (IS) Group out of Raqqa, which is more important than the ejecting process itself, where there is no clear scenario parameters until this moment, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), consists mostly of strange Kurdish Democratic Union Party who are not from the region, and they are unable to fill this void. Also, to allow the forces of the al-Assad regime to reenter Raqqa again means a decision by the International Community to re-order the regime, and this is still controversial among the international coalition countries, in addition to other scenarios concerning the introduction of coalition ground forces, and there are states ready to do this, all of these possibilities seem so far unresolved.
 



Military difficulties

Private military sources to ElDorar AlShamia network suggest , not to exceed (SDF) militias by limiting the maximum 25 thousand fighters, mostly deployed within the PYD- held areas, they are not able to mobilize more than 10 thousand fighters for control of the northern countryside of Raqqa, in the 17Squad , all the way to the city, which are considered a vast area, and are difficult to be covered with this number of fighters.

On the other hand, the (IS) militants have been crowding and preparing for several months, in anticipation of such a declaration, and this battle has an existential and psychological dimension, fall of the capital means the beginning of the end.
Demographics

Kurdish People's Protection Units (the military wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party) PYD possess a bad reputation in terms of their dealings with Arab civilians, after they deported militiant of the (IS) organization of Aleppo eastern countryside areas and countryside of Deir Ez-Zour province al-Hasakah, so the entry into the battle within a purely Arab areas will pay many components of the tribal fight against , especially the former presented  a detachable project earlier, and took advantage of the global war against the (IS) Group to deduct the territory and annexed to self-management.

Does not confine to the notorious Democratic Party; but it has become explicitly, where the party representative in Iraqi Kurdistan "Gharib Hissou" announced the intention of annexation of Raqqa city for "Federalism .

This will make the international coalition and its allies’ mission complex on the ground to make progress, especially that (Syria Democracy) alliance includes in its structure some Arab factions, as well as the Turkish sensitivity of the Party, which classifies it as the PKK’s military wing  of Syria, and harmony in attitudes between Turkey , Saudi Arabia and Qatar regarding Syria .

The next few days would make a transition in the battles’ progress that are supported by the international coalition towards the north-eastern countryside of Aleppo, specifically toward Jarablos and Manbej, especially if Turkey has taken in agreement with the United States, a decision to heat the front lines; but it is likely Raqqa Front line might not see more than a little progress under the previous conditions.
By:Policy Analysis Unit
the source: ElDorar AlShamia