To know Why Russia Out, Search Why Russia IN!

Eldorar Alshamia Editor | 17 March, 2016
   Views


If we want to know the reason for the withdrawal of Russia from Syria, we must examine the reasons for their arrival, where merely for the first four years of the Syrian Revolution Russia keep supporting politically, economics ,technically and militarily -in terms of gear and armaments     support, without getting a direct intervention, as long as "the Syrian coast" area is safe, and the "Alawites militia are able to protect the shores of the Mediterranean.
"Jaysh al-Fateh" progress toward the strategic  Jurin camp in the countryside of Latakia, after the liberation of the province of Idlib, which makes a real horror for the Russians , where their influence area of ​​ the warm waters became about to fall, and their interests are threatened dramatically, which means that the remote support and other means do not work any more and it must be a direct military intervention which made them to take this step.
Why Russia is interested in
an influence within the Mediterranean area?
The Russia's economy depends primarily on exporting underground resources, especially oil and gas, it was clear that Europe was the most important consumer market for those resources, so Russia has enjoyed good relations with Turkey before the (jet-drop)  incident near the Syrian border, where the latter was considered as an important lung to breathe for the Russians during the period of Us-sanctions Bank on Russia, Turkey has formed a gateway for Russian gas and oil to the old continent -Europe.
But the  Iran, Iraq and Syria agreement signed by the Iranians for gas export to Syria through the Iraqi land, and then to Europe across the Mediterranean in order to circumvent the Western sanctions, creating real competition for Russian gas, in addition to a wealth of gas in the eastern Mediterranean , some experts likened of the wealth of the Arabian Gulf . So the Russians pay to stick to a strong influence in the warm water.

Iran-West Nuclear Deal accelerated the Russian hurrying to Syria
Iran and  Russia were gathered through  alliances in several files, the most important problems with the West and the United States, where the two countries were subjected to tight economic sanctions, but Western nuclear deal with Tehran to sound the alarm for Moscow, where it will be followed by economic openness, and a close cooperation and business, and the European States companies began sending their
scouts to Tehran, which in turn will be keen to hold oil and gas export agreements, which turns it into a serious competitor for Russia, especially Iran has  its presence before  Russia in Syria to secure its interests, and preceded Russia as it  signed  a contract of gas export agreement to Syria and from there to Europe across the Mediterranean. All that made the Russians are face-to-face  with the inevitable choice,  strengthening of the marine base in the Mediterranean, and turn it into a military base after it was a refueling and secure maintenance supply base, in addition to creating an air base, and due to the winning trade (Combating Terrorism) these days, Russia invested the existence of the "Islamic State organization (ISIL) "as a pretext for intervention.
Russia's goals differ from the Iran
’s and the Assad regime’s
The economically-shacked Russian, which was forced to a defense budget cut to  5%, does not want to engage in a protracted war in order to help the al-Assad regime to restore what its forces had lost, and this is from a military point of view is very expensive as well as difficult to achieve due to exit the majority of Syrian territory from the hands of the regime , but Russia only wants to secure positions on the Mediterranean as we have said, to become a major player able to impose itself in any settlement after it sounds it is difficult  retain the "al-Assad, whereas sticking  to the al-Assad regime will pay Russia to fight a long battle that is originally does not want to, while Iran believes that the interests linked closely the survival of the Syrian regime, fully aware that the fall of al-Assad means a loss of influence, while the Assad regime is trying to oscillate between the two parties in order to collect the largest gains of them, to maintain its existence, and this space standstill been narrowing significantly.
Perhaps these conflicts of interest, and the
Iranian realization of the Russian purpose, and they did not come in order to retain  the "al-Assad" or to support Iran, but it came to secure its interests, the contradiction between the two parties clearly demonstrated in recent times, and media of  Revolutionary Guards talked about this , and criticized the Russian intervention, this contradiction was evident in “Oglu- Turkish PM”visit to Tehran, as well as the Iranian president promise to visit Ankara, the current arch-enemy of Moscow.
Considering what
has been done by the Russian intervention on the ground, we see that it focused on distracting the Jaysh al-Fateh force as it threatens the Syrian coast, and disperse its forces as defenders of the southern and northern countryside , and as defenders of the coast, after it had been a cohesive force intends to pounce on Latakia, and all that aimed at singling the  coast rebels, and fully secured it, with strikes in northern Syria depth to achieve the same goal.

 

 


Therefore, to talk about a deal drove Russia from Syria, or a military defeat and failure remains just non-accurate discussions , but the closest to the actual data is that Moscow provided to Syria to possess more powerful cards in the next settlement, which does not rule out al-Assad to exit and some of his regime symbols , as long as the interests guaranteed, sea and air bases support the negotiation to achieve those interests, and this explains the positive statements by Moscow to the Gulf states in the words of its foreign minister, Lavrov, as well as the beginning of the decline of the economic sanctions, Russian towards Turkey , in a clear message to the regional countries those supporting Syrian opposition that Russia would not want to evoke and do not want also to fight with al-Assad till to the end.
This does not mean in any way to adopt the premise that "Russia" triumphed, or the hypothesis that it was defeated, because who exaggerated its intervention size, will necessarily do so because of the withdrawal, but you want to study these data putting the Russian intervention within the proper context, and stay away from the theory of an “alliance of all nations to one goal in Syria”, including the contrasting countries such as Russia and America, which helps to deal with each party individually.